With my cynical calculator’s Academy Awards predictions on who will win the filmmaking and acting Oscars, we now move to the final four categories: Best Documentary, Best Foreign Language Film, Best Animated Film and Best Picture.
If you’re wondering why I’m doing this, it’s because I love you and want you to win an enormous television in our Oscars Picks competition. You can pay me back later in warm hugs.
Unless I’m completely wrong. In which case, you can direct your hatred to the darkest corner of the Flicks office where I’ll be sobbing.
Best Documentary
In the running: Citizenfour, Finding Vivian Maier, Last Days in Vietnam, The Salt of the Earth, Virunga
On an almost yearly basis, the Best Documentary winners interchange between uplifting/cutesy personal subjects (March of the Penguins, Undefeated) to hard-edge journalism that takes a thoroughly researched shit on your good-will towards humanity (Taxi to the Dark Side, Inside Job).
Last year, the Academy favoured the former over the latter, awarding feel-great doco 20 Feet from Stardom over the faith-destroying brain-piercer that was The Act of Killing. The cynical calculator reckons the Academy will continue the trend and flip back towards the human-hating side of documentary filmmaking. This rules out Finding Vivian Maier and The Salt of the Earth.
So what is the most provocative subject matter amongst the nominees? The battle is between covert and illegal global surveillance (Citizenfour), the moral wildfire that was the end of the Vietnam war (Last Days in Vietnam), and environmentalists trying to protect mountain gorillas in the Congo during a civil war (Virunga).
All these subjects are pretty damn bleak, but the Academy will probably be most provoked by a recent issue that’s ‘close to home’. The calculator says Citizenfour will win.
Best Foreign Language Film
In the running: Tangerines, Ida, Leviathan, Wild Tales, Timbuktu
In the last three years, there has been a foreign film masterpiece that dominates a section filled with extremely good nominees.
2012: Bullhead, Footnote, In Darkness and Monsier Lazhar were great films. Asghar Farhadi’s A Separation was a masterpiece.
2013: Kon-Tiki, No, A Royal Affair and War Witch were great films. Michael Haneke’s Amour was a masterpiece.
2014: The Broken Circle Breakdown, The Hunt, The Missing Picture and Omar were great films. Paolo Sorrentino’s The Great Beauty was a masterpiece*.
*No, I don’t get its masterpiece-ness either, but let’s just go with it for argument’s sake
You kinda feel sorry for the other countries that haven’t got a shot at winning the Oscar, but at least their films are highlighted for the public to recognize.
2015 is set up in this exact same way. Tangerines, Wild Tales, Timbuktu and Ida provide mighty competition. But this one’s going to the “new Russian masterpiece” Leviathan.
Best Animated Feature
In the running: The Boxtrolls, Big Hero 6, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Song of the Sea, The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
I tried typing this one into the cynical calculator, but got ‘Syntax Error’.
I tried again, and then it suggested I put in The LEGO Movie as a nominee.
I typed in ‘but The LEGO Movie wasn’t nominated’. Then the calculator vibrated violently for about an hour.
It then gave me the following answer: ‘I just don’t care anymore. Fuck it. Song of the Sea, I guess?’
How to Train Your Dragon 2 will win.
Best Picture
In the running: American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, The Imitation Game, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash
(Reminder: I said in The Filmmakers segment that the winner of this category would also be the winner of Best Original Screenplay)
I won’t waste words detailing each of the eight nominees’ chances for Best Picture, so I’ll shave off the not-winners with a one-word reason:
American Sniper – controversy
The Grand Budapest Hotel – goofy
The Imitation Game – Britain
Selma – sympathy-vote
The Theory of Everything – meh
Whiplash – indie
Yep, this contest is down to Boyhood and Birdman.
Is there a pattern that can help make an accurate prediction?
Surprisingly, no. As hard as the calculator tried, cynicism cannot help us break this stalemate. So how will we predicted who will win?
Well, Birdman is a damn fine film that a hell of a lot of people adore (some loathe it, and good for them). The unbroken method of shooting was justified, meshing the theatrically raw with the ludicrously surreal. It has a wit-heavy meta-script boosted by a game cast that are completely willing to poke fun at their own reputation while utilising an appropriately comedic angle to examine the intensity of the creative process in today’s populous world. Complete with an ending that chose not to spell it out to anyone, Birdman is deserving of the Academy Award for Best Picture.
…if it wasn’t for Boyhood.
It is sometimes criticised that if it wasn’t for the movie’s longitudinal filmmaking process, Boyhood would be a very average film. However, that would be like criticising The Artist for being a silent black-n-white picture. That would be like criticising 12 Years a Slave for being a film about slavery. That would be like criticising The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King for being the third film of a trilogy (go nuts on The Hobbit though).
Without those qualities, the films in question aren’t even fathomable. This is the case with Boyhood.
By filming Boyhood over a period of 12 years, it created the effect of growing up with more immersion than any coming-of-age film before it. Literally every frame surrounds you in a time and place, having you share (and relive) the observations made by its lead lad Mason. Thanks to Linklater’s impeccable writing and direction, the film never loses its sense of genuineness – a common landmine for filmmakers working with kids.
While Alejandro González Iñárritu and his crew MADE something original, Richard Linklater DID something original – with profound results. He created a coming-of-age film, a time travel film, a life-affirming film, a philosophical film. It’s a film that celebrates the confusion, wonder, joy, shame, curiosity, fear and joy of growth.
Boyhood will win Best Picture, and you don’t need cynicism to be confident about that prediction.
