OSCARS 2009: Flicks Writers Pick The WinnersRSS

OSCARS 2009: Flicks Writers Pick The Winners

18th Feb 2009
By Ed, Flicks.co.nz

They say opinions are like arseholes - everyone's got one and they're all full of s**t. With that in mind, here the Flicks crew present our thoughts on what we hope will win the six main categories at the Oscars on Monday, and what we actually expect to win. Scroll to the bottom of the page for a handy round-up of our hopes and expectations. Sweepstake, anyone?

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Paul Scantlebury - Flicks Editor

I’d like to see Milk get Best Film, but I’m fancying an upset win for Benjamin Button, over odds-on favourite Slumdog Millionaire. Just got a hunch. I’m going with Mickey Rourke for Best Actor (that would be well deserved), Kate Winslet for Actress (again, a worthy winner), Penelope Cruz for Supporting Actress (no arguments there either) and Heath Ledger for Supporting Actor (of course). Best Director, a bob each way for David Fincher and Danny Boyle – it usually goes with Best Film, so at a push I’ll say Fincher.

No Dark Knight nomination for Best Film is the royal snubbing here. How something like Frost/Nixon, which is solid but far from spectacular, can be nominated over that gargantuan piece of entertainment is beyond reason. Thanks to The Dark Knight, last year was the year the blockbuster got some artistic credibility from the hoity-toity. It would’ve been the sexy pick for Best Film.

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Andrew Hedley - Flicks Kitchen Hand

A weak bunch of nominations this year for Best Film. Nothing wowed me, but I’d pick Benjamin Button as being slightly superior. A bit saggy in parts, but it had an interesting concept and great performances. Still, Slumdog Millionaire will be winning editing, sound editing, sound mixing, cinematography, and Danny Boyle will win Best Director (no contest there). So it seems only natural that it will also take Best Film – you couldn’t get all the rest and not get that too, surely?

Best Actor will probably go to Mickey Rourke, but I haven’t seen The Wrestler, so my vote goes to the wildcard – Richard Jenkins. I thought he was great in The Visitor. His performance was less showy than the others, but that’s what made it memorable. Best Supporting Actor will be Heath Ledger. He was over-the-top in The Dark Knight, but that was right for the character and, given the fact that he’s now dead, the Academy will give him the sympathy vote.

Meryl Streep won’t get Best Actress with her scenery chewing in Doubt. Angelina Jolie has gossip-mag saturation running against her, and Melissa Leo is too much of an unknown. Anne Hathaway probably deserves this as much as anybody, but Kate Winslet will take this one. Best Supporting Actress – give both the Doubt ladies a miss, it was a boring film and their performances were wasted. Penelope Cruz was cool but kind of a one-trick-pony in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, and Marisa Tomei will be overshadowed by Rourke’s win for The Wrestler, so the prize will go to Taraji P. Henson for her time-spanning role in Benjamin Button.

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Andreas Heinemann - Man About Town

You’ve got to think Slumdog Millionaire takes Best Film, with all the momentum it has. With my two favourite nominated films, Waltz with Bashir and Man On Wire, scrapping it out in the Best Foreign Language Film and Best Documentary ghettos respectively, I’m fairly apathetic about this category.

Sean Penn won the Screen Actors Guild award so I think he’ll pip Mickey Rourke for Best Actor. I’m hoping things don’t pan out that way because Rourke was incredible and thoroughly deserves the win. Frank Langella is the dark horse with a great portrayal of Richard Nixon. Kate Winslet seems like a lock for Best Actress, mostly because she’s been nominated but overlooked so many times that voters will feel she’s due. Meanwhile, Melissa Leo produced easily the best performance in the field but unfortunately she doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in Hell.

Best Supporting Actor is a loaded category with a host of great performances but Heath Ledger will deservedly take it out. The other nominees probably did enough to win on another year, except Robert Downey Jr. who’d become the biggest shock in Oscars history if his name is called. As for Best Supporting Actress, Penelope Cruz had the most memorable supporting turn. It may have been a little too brief, but no-one else looks that big a threat so it’s Cruz by a nose, her nose, which should mean she comes home pretty comfortably.

I’ll be contentious and say Gus Van Sant to win Best Director. An American auteur toning down his style for a story about an important social issue seems like something voters will reward. Favourite Danny Boyle is a first-time nominee for a film destined to win a lot of other categories, so he could easily be bypassed.

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Daniel McClelland - Wellington Correspondent

Benjamin Button should win Best Film, and probably will do so. It's in The Academy's best interests to award a movie that employed hundreds of crew members.

Mickey Rourke deserves Best Actor - after the film was released, after nominations were announced, he still decided to fight an actual wrestling match. Talk about method acting. But Sean Penn will likely take this one - Rourke has become accidental tabloid fodder and will be reprimanded here. I'd like to see Anne Hathaway get Best Actress. She's shaken off her tween image and hopefully an Oscar will help keep her away from 'Get Smart 2'. But my money's on Kate Winslet. Oprah loves Barack Obama and that worked out well for him. Oprah loves Kate too so... Oscar!

Best Supporting Actor will be Heath Ledger. Do you see Batman on the DVD cover, or The Joker? I'd give Best Supprting Actress to Taraji P. Henson. Watch 'Hustle & Flow' for evidence of her brilliance. But Penelope Cruz is more likely to get the win – she's typecast and easily marketable. Despite being the world's biggest Woody Allen fan, I'm not impressed.

As for Best Director, well, Christopher Nolan should have been nominated for The Dark Knight. His work re-defined several genres. Of the actual nominees though, it's surely David Fincher. I'll be thrilled to see the director of Fight Club thank the Academy.

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Ashley Bird - English Bloke

For my money, it should be Slumdog or Milk for Best Picture. Slumdog is the best punch-the-air-at-the-end movie ‘experience’, but Milk pips it in terms of its acting and the tension of its finale. I’d pick Milk, just. But the slightly overrated Benjamin Button will probably take it, given the sheer number of nominations it has. As a side note, the lack of The Dark Knight in this category seems stupid to me – it’s a modern masterpiece.

I hope it’s Sean Penn for Best Actor, although I haven’t seen The Wrestler yet. I’ve liked Kate Winslet since Heavenly Creatures, so I wouldn’t begrudge her a win and another teary moment for Best Actress. In the Best Supporting Actor slot, with the exception of Downey Jr (funny, but let’s not be silly here) they’re all good. Heath Ledger’s beyond ‘good’ though. Best. Comic. Book. Movie. Villain. Ever. If he doesn’t win (he will, surely) I hope it’s Michael Shannon, who really ignites his scenes in Revolutionary Road. Similarly, Penelope Cruz is a right old banshee in Vicky Cristina, so I’ll pick her for Best Supporting Actress.

As for Best Director, again it’s between Milk’s Gus Van Sant and Slumdog’s Danny Boyle for me. Both sensational. Hmm. (Flips a coin.) Okay, Gus Van Sant! No, hold on, best of three. (More coin flipping.) Danny Boyle. Boyle all the way. Right behind you Danny.

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The Roundup:

Best Film
We’d like: Milk (Scantlebury, Bird), Benjamin Button (Hedley, McClelland) or Frost/Nixon (Heinemann)
We expect: Benjamin Button (Scantlebury, McClelland, Bird) or Slumdog Millionaire (Hedley, Heinemann)

Best Actor
We’d like: Mickey Rourke (Scantlebury, Heinemann, McClelland), Richard Jenkins (Hedley) or Sean Penn (Bird)
We expect: Mickey Rourke (Scantlebury, Hedley, Bird) or Sean Penn (Heinemann, McClelland)

Best Actress
We’d like: Kate Winslet (Scantlebury, Hedley, Bird), Anne Hathaway (McClelland) or Melissa Leo (Heinemann)
We expect: Kate Winslet (Scantlebury, Hedley, Heinemann, McClelland, Bird)

Best Supporting Actor
We’d like: Heath Ledger (Scantlebury, Hedley, Heinemann, McClelland, Bird)
We expect: Heath Ledger (Scantlebury, Hedley, Heinemann, McClelland, Bird)

Best Supporting Actress
We’d like: Penelope Cruz (Scantlebury, Heinemann, Bird) or Taraji P. Henson (Hedley, McClelland)
We expect: Penelope Cruz (Scantlebury, Heinemann, McClelland, Bird) or Taraji P. Henson (Hedley)

Best Director
We’d like: Gus Van Sant (Scantlebury, Heinemann), Danny Boyle (Hedley, Bird) or David Fincher (McClelland)
We expect: David Fincher (Scantlebury, McClelland), Danny Boyle (Hedley, Bird) or Gus Van Sant (Heinemann)

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For more info on nominees see our special feature. And don't forget to fire up your internet connection on Monday from 2.30pm for our special Flicks.co.nz live blog on the Oscars, as it unfolds...